Thursday, June 18, 2009

The Future of Commercial Real Estate

The Future of Commercial Real Estate
By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Chad_Mayes]Chad Mayes

Although serious supply-demand imbalances have continued to plague real estate markets into the 2000s in many areas, the mobility of capital in current sophisticated financial markets is encouraging to real estate developers. The loss of tax-shelter markets drained a significant amount of capital from real estate and, in the short run, had a devastating effect on segments of the industry. However, most experts agree that many of those driven from real estate development and the real estate finance business were unprepared and ill-suited as investors. In the long run, a return to real estate development that is grounded in the basics of economics, real demand, and real profits will benefit the industry.

Syndicated ownership of real estate was introduced in the early 2000s. Because many early investors were hurt by collapsed markets or by tax-law changes, the concept of syndication is currently being applied to more economically sound cash flow-return real estate. This return to sound economic practices will help ensure the continued growth of syndication. Real estate investment trusts (REITs), which suffered heavily in the real estate recession of the mid-1980s, have recently reappeared as an efficient vehicle for public ownership of real estate. REITs can own and operate real estate efficiently and raise equity for its purchase. The shares are more easily traded than are shares of other syndication partnerships. Thus, the REIT is likely to provide a good vehicle to satisfy the public’s desire to own real estate.

A final review of the factors that led to the problems of the 2000s is essential to understanding the opportunities that will arise in the 2000s. Real estate cycles are fundamental forces in the industry. The oversupply that exists in most product types tends to constrain development of new products, but it creates opportunities for the commercial banker.

The decade of the 2000s witnessed a boom cycle in real estate. The natural flow of the real estate cycle wherein demand exceeded supply prevailed during the 1980s and early 2000s. At that time office vacancy rates in most major markets were below 5 percent. Faced with real demand for office space and other types of income property, the development community simultaneously experienced an explosion of available capital. During the early years of the Reagan administration, deregulation of financial institutions increased the supply availability of funds, and thrifts added their funds to an already growing cadre of lenders. At the same time, the Economic Recovery and Tax Act of 1981 (ERTA) gave investors increased tax “write-off” through accelerated depreciation, reduced capital gains taxes to 20 percent, and allowed other income to be sheltered with real estate “losses.” In short, more equity and debt funding was available for real estate investment than ever before.

Even after tax reform eliminated many tax incentives in 1986 and the subsequent loss of some equity funds for real estate, two factors maintained real estate development. The trend in the 2000s was toward the development of the significant, or “trophy,” real estate projects. Office buildings in excess of one million square feet and hotels costing hundreds of millions of dollars became popular. Conceived and begun before the passage of tax reform, these huge projects were completed in the late 1990s. The second factor was the continued availability of funding for construction and development. Even with the debacle in Texas, lenders in New England continued to fund new projects. After the collapse in New England and the continued downward spiral in Texas, lenders in the mid-Atlantic region continued to lend for new construction. After regulation allowed out-of-state banking consolidations, the mergers and acquisitions of commercial banks created pressure in targeted regions. These growth surges contributed to the continuation of large-scale [http://www.cemlending.com ]commercial mortgage lenders going beyond the time when an examination of the real estate cycle would have suggested a slowdown. The capital explosion of the 2000s for real estate is a capital implosion for the 2000s. The thrift industry no longer has funds available for commercial real estate. The major life insurance company lenders are struggling with mounting real estate. In related losses, while most commercial banks attempt to reduce their real estate exposure after two years of building loss reserves and taking write-downs and charge-offs. Therefore the excessive allocation of debt available in the 2000s is unlikely to create oversupply in the 2000s.

No new tax legislation that will affect real estate investment is predicted, and, for the most part, foreign investors have their own problems or opportunities outside of the United States. Therefore excessive equity capital is not expected to fuel recovery real estate excessively.

Looking back at the real estate cycle wave, it seems safe to suggest that the supply of new development will not occur in the 2000s unless warranted by real demand. Already in some markets the demand for apartments has exceeded supply and new construction has begun at a reasonable pace.

Opportunities for existing real estate that has been written to current value de-capitalized to produce current acceptable return will benefit from increased demand and restricted new supply. New development that is warranted by measurable, existing product demand can be financed with a reasonable equity contribution by the borrower. The lack of ruinous competition from lenders too eager to make real estate loans will allow reasonable loan structuring. Financing the purchase of de-capitalized existing real estate for new owners can be an excellent source of real estate loans for commercial banks.

As real estate is stabilized by a balance of demand and supply, the speed and strength of the recovery will be determined by economic factors and their effect on demand in the 2000s. Banks with the capacity and willingness to take on new real estate loans should experience some of the safest and most productive lending done in the last quarter century. Remembering the lessons of the past and returning to the basics of good real estate and good real estate lending will be the key to real estate banking in the future.

Chad Mayes is the creator of [http://www.cemlending.com/]CEMLending.com, a resource which provides commercial mortgage loan financing and hard money lending options. This article is copyright of [http://www.cemlending.com/]CEMLending.com. This article may be reproduced as long as author's name and all links remain intact.

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Thursday, June 11, 2009

3 Of The Top 9 Reasons That The Real Estate Bubble Is Bursting

3 Of The Top 9 Reasons That The Real Estate Bubble Is BurstingBy [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Louis_Hill]Louis Hill
If you own real estate or are thinking of buying real estate then you better pay attention, because this could be the most important message you receive this year regarding real estate and your financial future.
The last five years have seen explosive growth in the real estate market and as a result many people believe that real estate is the safest investment you can make. Well, that is no longer true. Rapidly increasing real estate prices have caused the real estate market to be at price levels never before seen in history when adjusted for inflation! The growing number of people concerned about the real estate bubble means there are less available real estate buyers. Fewer buyers mean that prices are coming down.
On May 4, 2006, Federal Reserve Board Governor Susan Blies stated that "Housing has really sort of peaked". This follows on the heels of the new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saying that he was concerned that the "softening" of the real estate market would hurt the economy. And former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan previously described the real estate market as frothy. All of these top financial experts agree that there is already a viable downturn in the market, so clearly there is a need to know the reasons behind this change.
3 of the top 9 reasons that the real estate bubble will burst include:
1. Interest rates are rising - foreclosures are up 72%!
2. First time homebuyers are priced out of the market - the real estate market is a pyramid and the base is crumbling
3. The psychology of the market has changed so that now people are afraid of the bubble bursting - the mania over real estate is over!
The first reason that the real estate bubble is bursting is rising interest rates. Under Alan Greenspan, interest rates were at historic lows from June 2003 to June 2004. These low interest rates allowed people to buy homes that were more expensive then what they could normally afford but at the same monthly cost, essentially creating "free money". However, the time of low interest rates has ended as interest rates have been rising and will continue to rise further. Interest rates must rise to combat inflation, partly due to high gasoline and food costs. Higher interest rates make owning a home more expensive, thus driving existing home values down.
Higher interest rates are also affecting people who bought adjustable mortgages (ARMs). Adjustable mortgages have very low interest rates and low monthly payments for the first two to three years but afterwards the low interest rate disappears and the monthly mortgage payment jumps dramatically. As a result of adjustable mortgage rate resets, home foreclosures for the 1st quarter of 2006 are up 72% over the 1st quarter of 2005.
The foreclosure situation will only worsen as interest rates continue to rise and more adjustable mortgage payments are adjusted to a higher interest rate and higher mortgage payment. Moody's stated that 25% of all outstanding mortgages are coming up for interest rate resets during 2006 and 2007. That is $2 trillion of U.S. mortgage debt! When the payments increase, it will be quite a hit to the pocketbook. A study done by one of the country's largest title insurers concluded that 1.4 million households will face a payment jump of 50% or more once the introductory payment period is over.
The second reason that the real estate bubble is bursting is that new homebuyers are no longer able to buy homes due to high prices and higher interest rates. The real estate market is basically a pyramid scheme and as long as the number of buyers is growing everything is fine. As homes are bought by first time home buyers at the bottom of the pyramid, the new money for that $100,000.00 home goes all the way up the pyramid to the seller and buyer of a $1,000,000.00 home as people sell one home and buy a more expensive home. This double-edged sword of high real estate prices and higher interest rates has priced many new buyers out of the market, and now we are starting to feel the effects on the overall real estate market. Sales are slowing and inventories of homes available for sale are rising quickly. The latest report on the housing market showed new home sales fell 10.5% for February 2006. This is the largest one-month drop in nine years.
The third reason that the real estate bubble is bursting is that the psychology of the real estate market has changed. For the last five years the real estate market has risen dramatically and if you bought real estate you more than likely made money. This positive return for so many investors fueled the market higher as more people saw this and decided to also invest in real estate before they 'missed out'.
The psychology of any bubble market, whether we are talking about the stock market or the real estate market is known as 'herd mentality', where everyone follows the herd. This herd mentality is at the heart of any bubble and it has happened numerous times in the past including during the US stock market bubble of the late 1990's, the Japanese real estate bubble of the 1980's, and even as far back as the US railroad bubble of the 1870's. The herd mentality had completely taken over the real estate market until recently.
The bubble continues to rise as long as there is a "greater fool" to buy at a higher price. As there are less and less "greater fools" available or willing to buy homes, the mania disappears. When the hysteria passes, the excessive inventory that was built during the boom time causes prices to plummet. This is true for all three of the historical bubbles mentioned above and many other historical examples. Also of importance to note is that when all three of these historical bubbles burst the US was thrown into recession.
With the changing in mindset related to the real estate market, investors and speculators are getting scared that they will be left holding real estate that will lose money. As a result, not only are they buying less real estate, but they are simultaneously selling their investment properties as well. This is producing huge numbers of homes available for sale on the market at the same time that record new home construction floods the market. These two increasing supply forces, the increasing supply of existing homes for sale coupled with the increasing supply of new homes for sale will further exacerbate the problem and drive all real estate values down.
A recent survey showed that 7 out of 10 people think the real estate bubble will burst before April 2007. This change in the market psychology from 'must own real estate at any cost' to a healthy concern that real estate is overpriced is causing the end of the real estate market boom.
The aftershock of the bubble bursting will be enormous and it will affect the global economy tremendously. Billionaire investor George Soros has said that in 2007 the US will be in recession and I agree with him. I think we will be in a recession because as the real estate bubble bursts, jobs will be lost, Americans will no longer be able to cash out money from their homes, and the entire economy will slow down dramatically thus leading to recession.
In conclusion, the three reasons the real estate bubble is bursting are higher interest rates; first-time buyers being priced out of the market; and the psychology about the real estate market is changing. The recently published eBook "How To Prosper In The Changing Real Estate Market. Protect Yourself From The Bubble Now!" discusses these items in more detail.
Louis Hill, MBA received his Masters In Business Administration from the Chapman School at Florida International University, specializing in Finance. He was one of the top graduates in his class and was one of the few graduates inducted into the Beta Gamma Business Honor Society.
Mr. Hill received his undergraduate degree from the University of Florida with a double major in Finance and Risk Management.
For the past several years he has been working in a South Florida commercial real estate lender that specializes in financing real estate developers. Mr. Hill has seen firsthand the challenges and pitfalls that real estate developers are experiencing, and how the real estate market has been deteriorating rapidly. He is also a professional consultant to professional real estate developers and investors.
Previously, he was in management consulting. Additionally, he was a professional trader in the stock market and witnessed the stock market bubble bursting in 2001 and now is concerned about the real estate bubble.
Mr. Hill is very active in many civic groups and charities.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Successful Real Estate Investing

Successful Real Estate Investing
By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Joe_Love]Joe Love

One of the best roads to wealth in America has always been the acclimation and development of good, solid, income-producing real estate. Real estate ownership is one of the best ways to achieve financial independence for the average person. But in order to be a successful real estate investor, you are must become above-average in your knowledge and understanding of how the real estate market works.

There are five basic requirements that you must follow to succeed in real estate.

1. Write out clear and specific goals that have time lines on them. Set a goal for the exact type of property you are looking for. Do want a single family property? A duplex? A four-unit property. You must be specific. Set a goal for getting the money you’ll need to purchase the property. Always make sure your goal has a time line for when you will acquire the property. Will it be six months or a year? Set goals for the amount of real estate you intend to purchase in the next three, five, and ten years. The very act of writing out set goals for yourself in real estate will make it much more likely that you’ll have the success you are aiming for.

2. Write out a detailed plan of action, listing everything you are going to do, organized by priority. The combination of goals plus detailed plans will give you a blueprint for real estate accumulation that you can begin to follow on a day to day basis.

3. Make a plan to learn every detail of the real estate business. Because the potential rewards are so high in real estate, they will go to those who have done their homework and paid their dues. It’s very important for you to become an expert at real estate before you begin investing your time and savings in real estate acquisition.

4. Be prepared to back your plans with hard work, sacrifice, and persistence. Going into real estate is very much like starting a business. There is a tremendous amount that you have to learn and you can only learn by experience. There will be ups and downs, successes and failures, and you must be willing to persist patiently throughout, knowing that you will be successful in the end.

5. If you are really serious about building something lasting and worthwhile in real estate, resolve to get into real estate for the long term, for a minimum of ten to twenty years. Real estate investment is not something that you jump into and out of. It is something that you step into very carefully, and should be prepared to hold onto for a long time.

Many people who purchase real estate, hold it for a long time and then sell it just before it starts to rise rapidly in value. They become impatient when they hear about other people making quick or easy money by flipping real estate properties.

The definition of investment real estate in its simplest term is: “Real estate is its future earning power.” Let me put this another way: “Real estate is nothing more and nothing less than its future earning power, its value at some future date.” In other words, the value of any piece of real estate is determined by the income that can be generated by that property when it is at its highest and best use, from today and on into the indefinite future.

An important question that you should always ask when you are considering any real estate investment is, “When and how will income or wealth be generated on or by this piece of property, and in what amount?” The correct answer to that question tells you how much the property is worth today and how much it is likely to be worth in the future.

Even though interest rates are at all time lows and property values are increasing at record levels, there are still foreclosures happening at record levels today, because of so many people losing their jobs. Having said this as a warning, there are many things that you can learn and do, starting with very little money, to begin building your financial independence in real estate.

If you do not have much money but have lots of time, and you sincerely desire to enter into the real estate field, the simplest way for you to start is to buy homes that need work and fix them up, thereby increasing their value. This is where many successful real estate investors and entrepreneurs begin their careers.

Here are six basic steps you need to follow if you are going to buy properties and fix them up.

1. Do your market research thoroughly and look at houses until you find one that is under priced relative to the neighborhood, because it is run down and needs a lot of work. A house that is under priced is one that is selling for 20% or more below what similar houses are selling for in the same area, based on the cost or sales price per square foot. For you, this type of home could be what is called a “Sleeper.” It can be more valuable than it appears on the outside.

2. Purchase the house at the lowest possible cash down-payment and get the seller to carry back a second mortgage or deed of trust for the property. Your ideal purchase of investment real estate is always to get the very best price and terms. Price and terms are often more important than any other single factor. If you can get a low enough price and generous terms you can make almost any property into a successful investment.

3. Move into the house and begin working on it on the weekends to renovate and refurbish it, doing all or most of the work yourself. Many husbands and wives have launched themselves toward financial independence by working as a team to buy and fix up houses, approaching this as a family project.

4. When you have fixed up the house and yard so that it is attractive again, you can then do one of three things. You can sell the house for more than you paid and take the profit from the sale and buy another house to renovate. You can rent out the house at a rate that covers your mortgage payment and hopefully gives you extra cash flow. Or you can rent out the renovated house and then refinance the property, often for as much as you paid for it, based on the higher earning power of the property when you rented it.

5. You can then repeat this process with another house, again doing the renovations yourself until you have fixed it up and you are ready to sell, rent, or refinance the second house as well.

6. As you increase your assets, your cash flow, and your experience, you move up to buying and fixing duplexes and eventually apartment buildings.

There are two main advantages to buying properties and then fixing them up yourself: First, you can do it while you keep your full-time job, continuing to generate cash flow from your job for repairs and renovation. Second, you can start small, with little or no money, little or no risk, and expand your activities as you gain more knowledge and experience.

Making money in anything, especially real estate, is hard work and requires persistence. Everyone with a property for sale wants to get as much of your money for it as he or she possibly can. Your job is to see that they don’t. So, if you are willing to do your homework and take your time, you can make prudent and profitable real estate purchases and sales.

You make your money when you buy real estate, not when you sell. You make your profit in real estate by buying right, by buying the right property at the right price and at the right terms. When you sell, you simply realize the profit that you made at the time of the purchase. Another important rule for investing in real estate is this: don’t become emotional about a property that you are purchasing for investment. Always look at the property from the viewpoint of a critical purchaser.

Purchasing real estate of any kind requires careful thought and analysis. Just remember that you are buying the long-term future earning power of a piece of property. You are purchasing the property as an asset and nothing more. Always remember, real estate is only an asset if it puts money into your pocket.

These rules are all food for thought if your are planning to become a real estate investor. These are some basics that you need to know to get started in the field of real estate. Read books and attend seminars on a regular basis in the field of real estate. Go out and look at properties every week that are for sale, even if you are not ready to buy. By doing this you will be gaining valuable experience. Nothing can take the place of knowledge and experience, especially in the field of real estate.

Millions of men and women have become financially independent by investing in real estate, and with the proper knowledge and experience, there is no reason why you cannot do it as well.

Copyright© 2005 by Joe Love & JLM & Associates, Inc. All rights reserved worldwide.

Joe Love draws on his 25 years of experience helping both individuals and companies build their businesses, increase profits, and achieve total success. He is the founder and CEO of JLM & Associates, a consulting and training organization, specializing in personal and business development. Through his seminars and lectures, Joe Love addresses thousands of men and women each year, including the executives and staffs of many of America’s largest corporations, on the subjects of leadership, self-esteem, goals, achievement, and success psychology.

Reach Joe at: [mailto:joe@jlmandassociates.com]joe@jlmandassociates.com

Read more articles and newsletters at: http://www.jlmandassociates.com

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